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Who Will Win Wimbledon 2023?

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This was supposed to be a year of coronations in England. The Joker, however, had the last laugh in Paris, knocking Carlos Alcaraz Garfia from his presumed ascension to the top of tennis. So we’re back to where we’ve been the last several years—waiting to see if anyone can stop odds-on favorite, Novak Djokovic.

The Men’s Singles bracket has set up well for both Djokovic and Alcaraz, but anything can happen at tennis’ hallowed grass court grounds. In just over a fortnight, we could either see a true changing of the guard—or Djokovic reaching just one step from the elusive calendar Grand Slam.

The Wimbledon Championships begin Monday, July 3. Full Wimbledon coverage is available on ESPN and ESPN+, starting at 5 a.m. ET on Monday. You’ll also find coverage on ABC, ESPN2, and Tennis Channel. Here are our top contenders and favorite up-and-comers fighting for this year’s Wimbledon crown. 

Related: Meet Taylor Fritz, America’s Rising Tennis Star

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Novak Djokavic

After winning the French Open as somewhat of a surprise (there was major injury concern heading into the tournament), Djokovic has resumed his usual spot on top of the sport. Again, the 36-year-old proved to be a class above, scorching fourth-ranked Casper Ruud in straight sets in the final. Djokovic has won the last four Wimbledon Championships, and six of the last eight. After winning Australia as well, he has a chance for the calendar Grand Slam. As usual, he skipped any grass court warm-up tournaments.

The Men’s Singles bracket has set up well for Djokovic, as he’s not expected to face much of the top young talent until a possible quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final with Nick Kyrgios. Next up would be a possible semifinal match-up with Jannik Sinner (who led Djokavic two sets to love in last year’s quarterfinals) or a rematch of the Paris final against fourth-ranked Casper Ruud.

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Carlos Alcaraz

Many deemed 2023 the year that Carlos Alcaraz would rise to the top of the sport. While he has grabbed the world No. 1 ranking, the 20-year-old, Spanish sensation has yet to win a major in 2023. Wimbledon 2023 will only be Alcaraz’s fourth grass court tennis championship—the first two being Wimbledon 2021 and 2022. At this year’s Queen’s Club Championships, the key Wimbledon warm-up, Alcaraz beat 16th-ranked Alex de Minaur for his first ever grass court trophy.

Being ranked No. 1 has its advantages. Alcaraz has what’s considered the easiest draw and shouldn’t be tested until a possible quarterfinal match against sixth-ranked Holger Rune or 10th-ranked Frances Tiafoe. Go ahead and circle that match as a “can’t miss” if you want to get a look at some of the top young names in tennis.

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Daniil Medvedev

It’s been a disappointing 2023 for Medvedev. After falling in the third round at the Australian Open, things got even worse in Paris as he tumbled out in the first round. He chose Germany’s Halle Open as his warm-up tournament, but fell in the quarterfinals to 35-year-old Roberto Bautista Agut.

Third-seeded Medvedev has what’s being called the fourth-easiest draw in the Men’s Singles bracket, but after premature stumbles in the year’s first two Slams, expect Medvedev to be on his toes early. His first real test shouldn’t come before a possible quarterfinal against sputtering Stefanos Tsitsipas.

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Jannik Sinner

The 21-year-old Italian made waves at last year’s Wimbledon after going up two sets to love on Djokavic. Of course, that story didn’t end like a fairytale for Sinner, but many forget he also beat Alcaraz on his way to that fateful quarterfinal. This year has been a bit up and down for Sinner. He lost in the fourth round to then third-ranked Tsitsipas in Australia, and then was upset in the second round of the French Open. At his warm up at Halle, he lost in the quarterfinals to 26-year-old Alexander Bublik.

Sinner’s location in the bottom half of the bracket makes things a touch easier. He shouldn’t face too much pressure until a possible fourth-round match against American Taylor Fritz. If he wins there, things only get tougher as he’d be lined up for a possible quarterfinal against French Open finalist Ruud, which could lead to a semifinal against Djokovic.

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Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz is the top-ranked American at this year’s tournament and likely the top hope for the Stars & Stripes to take home the trophy—though ask again if Tiafoe makes it to the quarterfinals. Currently ranked ninth in the world, Fritz’s best showing at a slam was at last year’s Wimbledon where he reached the quarterfinals and lost in a fifth set tiebreak to Rafael Nadal. He warmed up at the Queen’s Club Championships this year, where he lost in the round of 16 to 35-year-old Adrian Mannarino.

Fritz’s path is pretty much the same as Sinner’s. The winner of their possible fourth-round match will certainly have their work cut out for them, however, with possible upcoming matches against Ruud and Djokovic.

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Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios remains the great question mark in this year’s tournament. Since reaching last year’s finals, he’s been frustrated. Largely considered one of the most talented young players in the game, the Australian with the bad attitude is now 28 and yet to win a grand slam. It looked like we might finally see a breakthrough from him this year. Unfortunately, he’s been marred by injuries.

An opening round against formerly seventh-ranked David Goffin should tell us a lot about Kyrgios’ form. If he can sneak through that, a possible third-round match against currently seventh-ranked Andrey Rublev looms. Then there’s a possible semifinal against Djokavic. While you can never fully count out Kyrgios, thanks to his sheer talent, he’s got a particularly tough bracket this year.

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Alexander Zverev

The former world No. 2 has been on somewhat of a vengeance tour since his second round loss at the Australian Open. He made it all the way to the semifinals in Paris before getting upended by Casper Ruud. At Halle, Zverev also reached the semifinals before being knocked out by eventual winner Alexander Bublik.

Zverev, ranked 19th, has the fifth most favorable draw of all according to Wimbledon professionals. He shouldn’t face too many roadblocks until the third round, where a match against 15th-ranked Alex de Minaur looms. If he wins that, he’ll be rewarded with a fourth-round match against world No. 1 Alcaraz, followed by a possible quarterfinal against Rune.

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Holger Rune

It’s been a great year for the 20-year-old Dane so far. After reaching the fourth round at his first-ever Australian Open, Rune followed up with a steller clay court season that saw him reach the finals of the Monte-Carlo Masters and Italian Open. He reached the quarterfinals of the French Open where he lost to eventual finalist Casper Ruud. Heading into Wimbledon, he reached the semifinals of the Queen’s Club where he lost to Alex de Minaur.

While the Wimbledon math makers say Rune’s path to the championship is the sixth-most favorable, there’s a reason they say you have to beat the best to be the best. A possible fourth-round match against 10th-ranked Tiafoe could be followed by a quarterfinal against first-ranked Alcaraz.

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Cam Norrie

Unless there’s some miracle from Andy Murray, South Africa-born Cam Norrie probably represents the best chance for a Brit to win at Wimbledon in 2023. He reached the semifinal in last year’s tournament, before losing in four sets to Djokavic. It’s been a pretty decent year so far for Norrie overall. He reached the third round at both the Australian Open and French Open and topped Alcaraz for the title at Rio.

Norrie’s path to the final isn’t easy. A third-round match against American Sebastian Korda, who beat him in the Queen’s Club quarterfinal, looms. If he makes it through that, he’ll find himself most likely up against Tsitsipas or countryman Murray in the fourth round. If he can steer his way through those, things will only get harder on his way to a possible semifinal against Alcaraz or Rune.

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Frances Tiafoe

The last 12 months have been the best in Tiafoe’s career. The 25-year-old American reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open, beating Nadal along the way, before falling in five sets to eventual champion Alcaraz. Following his third-round exit from the French Open, he won the Stuttgart Open. There’s a chance Wimbledon 2023 could launch Tiafoe’s biggest move yet.

Tiafoe’s early draw is favorable, and he shouldn’t face too much pressure until he runs into Rune in the fourth round. From there, it’s anyone’s guess, as he’ll likely face Alcaraz followed by whoever else survives the tough top half of the bracket.

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Odds*

● Novak Djokovic -138

● Carlos Alcaraz +300

● Daniil Medvedev +1600

● Jannik Sinner +1800

● Taylor Fritz +2800

● Nick Kyrgios +2800

● Alexander Zverev +2800

● Holger Rune +3300

● Alex De Minaur +5000

● Cam Norrie +6000

*according to Vegas Insider

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